Yankees vs. Rangers Best Bet, Prediction: MLB Odds, Picks

The Rangers opened the series against the Yankees as winners in five of their last six games.

However, they faced mediocre opponents, as they defeated the Athletics and the White Sox, two clubs with a combined winning percentage of .329.

Texas now must step up its game against a Yankees team with the best American League record at 80-58 after winning the season opener 8-4 on Monday.

The Yankees still have plenty to gain in the final phase, while the Rangers simply play out the series.

In Tuesday’s game, which features two left-handers, New York is the team that offers value as a -130 favorite on FanDuel.

Yankees Analysis

Carlos Rodón will be the Yankees’ starter and he shows that he has much more quality now that he is finally fit again.

Rodón played only 14 games in his first year in New York, going 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA. This season, he has improved to 14-9, with his ERA dropping to 4.31.

His numbers would be even better if he kept the ball in the park better.

In 2024, Rodón is allowing an average of 1.54 home runs per nine innings, compared to 0.88 in 2021 and 0.61 in 2022, when he had his best seasons.

Interestingly, his velocity (average fastball of 95.5 mph) has never been higher in his Major League career.

Although he has never been one to throw a lot of ground balls, he did improve his numbers in those seasons because his home stadiums were more favorable to pitchers.

Rodón should do much better against a Rangers team with an ISO average of .140, the sixth-worst mark in the league.

Rangers Analysis

Texas will look to Andrew Heaney to counterattack, who has easily out-pitched his 4-13 record.

His FIP of 3.95 is consistent with his ERA of 3.94, meaning his advanced stats aren’t indicating any significant regression.

However, Heaney had a particularly hard time against New York.

According to Baseball Savant, this Yankees team has a .289 xBA against him in 101 plate appearances, with a .394 xWOBA and a .585 xSLG.

Heaney’s pitching arsenal consists primarily of three pitches: a fastball (52.7%), a slider (27.8%) and a changeup (16.2%).

Every now and then he throws a curveball, which he does about 3% of the time.

The problem is that New York ranks second and sixth in runs above average against its two leading pitchers.

And if he tries to use his changeup more, the Yankees hitters will likely get faster, because he’s lost a little bit of separation in velocity between the offspeed pitch and his fastball.

Heaney has good control of the ball and often throws around the plate to encourage batters to run.

But the Yankees are a very patient group with a league-best 10.5% walk rate. Heaney will get in the zone at some point, and the Yankees will be ready to pounce.

Yankees vs. Rangers Pick

This is one of those matchups where the other team seems to have a pitcher’s number. According to the Action Network, Heaney’s teams are 89-90 (49.7%) in games he starts.

However, against the Yankees, his team has gone 0-6 and 1-6 in his career.

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Furthermore, Rangers have just secured a win in Heaney’s last start, and they have only won back-to-back games once in his starts this entire season.

Expect the Yankees to overwhelm the Rangers, and we get a fair price with the visitors at -130 odds.

Pick: Yankees moneyline (-130, FanDuel)