Tropical storm likely to form and move toward Texas

Tropical storm likely to form and move toward Texas

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A tropical wave in the western Gulf of Mexico is likely to develop into a tropical storm, the National Hurricane Center said in a tropical weather forecast issued Sunday morning.

The wave has a 90% chance of forming in the next seven days. The chance of two other disturbances developing in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic has increased by 50% to 70%.

No named storms have formed since August 12, despite forecasts for a hyperactive season. The season typically peaks around September 10, but that still leaves 12 weeks to go until it ends on December 1.

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Here’s what we know so far:

NHC: 90% chance of tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico

Editor’s Note: The story has been updated to reflect the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, which shows an increased chance of tropical storm formation.N.

According to the NHC’s weather forecast from 2 p.m. Sunday, a tropical storm is expected over the next day or so, with the system moving northwestward and then northward along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas, and along the Louisiana coast by midweek.

  • Chance of formation after 48 hours: 90%.
  • Chance of formation after 7 days: 90%.

The NHC is also monitoring activity over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form as it begins to move generally westward at about 10 mph through the remainder of the week, the NHC said.

  • Chance of formation after 48 hours: 60%.
  • Chance of formation after 7 days: 70%.

A trough of low pressure located a few hundred kilometers southwest of Cape Verde is producing a wide area of ​​disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very little for the next few days, until it possibly comes into contact with a tropical wave that is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions are then expected to favor the gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by mid to late week as the system begins to move slowly west-northwestward.

  • Chance of formation after 48 hours: 0%.
  • Chance of formation after 7 days: 50%.

More: Where are all those predicted hurricanes? Experts fear they are still coming.

Will Texas Be Impacted? See the Path of Potential Tropical Storm Francine

Early forecasts suggest a tropical depression could develop in the coming days and move northward along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas by midweek.

How many named storms have occurred in 2024?

So far in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, there have been five named storms:

  • Tropical Storm Alberto: Made landfall along the Texas coast in June 2024, causing some flooding. Impact to the region was less than initially predicted.
  • Hurricane Beryl: On July 8, a Category 1 hurricane tore across the Texas coast near Matagorda, killing at least 38 people and setting a record for tornado spinoffs.
  • Tropical Storm Chris: Caused heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of Mexico in early July.
  • Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, causing severe damage along the East Coast, killing at least 10 people.
  • Hurricane Ernesto: Hits Puerto Rico on August 24 with significant flooding, then hits Bermuda. It was a moderate hurricane with three indirect deaths.

If the wave in the Gulf of Mexico forms a tropical storm, it will be named Francine.

Spaghetti models for potential Tropical Storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico

Weather Alerts and Warnings for Texas

According to the NHC, surveillance efforts may be needed for parts of the western Gulf Coast later today or tonight.

Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

Interactive Map: Hurricanes, Tropical Storms That Have Passed Near Your City

— USA TODAY reporter Dinah Voyles Pulver contributed to this report.