Tropical Storm Francine forms ahead of expected hurricane making landfall on Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Francine forms ahead of expected hurricane making landfall on Gulf Coast



CNN

The first evacuations have been ordered along the Gulf Coast as Tropical Storm Francine gains strength in preparation for the hurricane expected to hit mid-week.

The storm was raging in the record-warm western Gulf of Mexico after forming late Monday morning, a few hundred miles from the Mexico-Texas border. Its winds jumped from 50 to 60 mph Monday afternoon — 14 mph shy of becoming a hurricane.

Flooding, rainfall, high winds and dangerous storm surges are likely along the western Gulf Coast this week as Francine continues to strengthen, prompting tropical storm and hurricane warnings to be issued for the region.

Francine’s formation follows a rare quiet period in the Atlantic Ocean, during which no named storms have formed since Ernesto in mid-August. This is typically one of the busiest weeks of the hurricane season.

While the storm is headed for a possible landfall in Louisiana, it is too early to determine exactly where it will enter the state or how strong it will be at that point. The storm could quickly strengthen over very warm waters—a symptom of global warming caused by fossil fuel pollution—that essentially act as jet fuel for tropical storms. It could also be stronger than currently forecast.

Officials in Louisiana are already bracing for the impact of the storm’s dangerous flooding and storm surge. Mandatory evacuations were ordered for parts of Cameron Parish in Louisiana, according to an official’s social media post. Both mandatory and voluntary evacuations were ordered farther east in the Jefferson Parish city of Grand Isle. In Mississippi, voluntary evacuations also began in the city of Pass Christian.

Some parishes, including St. Mary and Terrebonne, began closing floodgates and distributing sandbags Monday. Terrebonne Parish also declared a state of emergency, according to a news release.

Francine could strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday night a few hundred miles east of the Texas coast and is expected to strengthen until it makes landfall Wednesday night.

Tropical storm-force winds could reach parts of extreme northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas on Tuesday. Before that, storm surges and rough surf could cause minor coastal flooding in Mexico early this week.

The worst of the storm’s rainfall and wind gusts are likely to begin Wednesday morning, but concerns about storm surge in the U.S. will increase as the system strengthens and moves closer to land.

A storm surge warning was issued Monday for coastal areas from far eastern Texas to Louisiana and Mississippi. Parts of the central Louisiana coast could see the worst of the storm surge, with levels potentially reaching 10 feet above normal.

Heavy rains will also be a serious threat, particularly in coastal areas of northwestern Mexico on Monday. Heavy rain from the system could also begin in far southern Texas on Monday before reaching more of the western Gulf Coast on Tuesday.

Tropical downpours from the system will bring 4 to 8 inches of rain this week from extreme northeastern Mexico to parts of coastal Texas and southern Louisiana. Totals could approach a foot for areas stuck in the persistent downpours. A more widespread 2 to 4 inches is likely across the region.

Texas will see the heaviest rain early this week, but Louisiana may not see the heaviest rain until late Tuesday night.

According to the NHC, tropical rainfall could lead to a “significant” risk of flash flooding.

According to the Weather Prediction Center, there is a risk of flooding and level 3 of 4 rainfall across much of Louisiana and parts of southern Mississippi on Wednesday.

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The Gulf system isn’t the only area of ​​stormy weather that could cause tropical problems.

Two other areas in the open Atlantic have a medium chance of developing in the next seven days, the NHC said. A potential tropical system from either is still days away from developing, so it’s far too early to speculate on where they might end up.

CNN meteorologists Gene Norman, Elisa Raffa, Allison Chinchar and CNN’s Ashley R. Williams contributed to this report.